SAN JOSE, Costa Rica, Costa Rica said on Thursday it expected its 2010/11 coffee harvest to rise as much as 5.4 percent above last year's crop after damages from heavy rains proved to be less serious than originally thought.
Costa Rica was battered by heavy rains last year after the beginning of the harvesting season in October, raising fears of serious damage to the country's high-quality coffee crop.
But Ronald Peters, director of the country's national coffee institute known as Icafe, told Reuters the 2010/11 harvest would come in between 1.55 million and 1.57 million 60-kg bags, a jump from the 1.49 million produced last season.
Peters said nearly 80 percent of Costa Rica's crop already has been sold as arabica coffee prices hover arround three decade highs.
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/site/applist.aspx
* Colombia sees 2011 coffee output at 9-9.5 mln bags
* Rains in Costa Rica less damaging than first thought
Colombia, Mexico and Costa Rica on Thursday all boosted this year's coffee production outlooks, which may help ease supply concerns that have lifted arabica coffee prices to near three decade highs.
Colombia, the world's top producer of high-quality washed arabica beans, is expected to reach at least 9 million 60-kg bags, the highest level since 2008, as better weather helps flowering, the country's coffee federation said.
A shortage of arabica coffee from Colombia, suffering from several consecutive smaller crops, has fueled the coffee rally and a drawdown of stocks.
ICE arabica futures have doubled in price over the past eight months and surged on Tuesday to the highest level in more than 30 years at $2.7840 per lb. But coffee prices fell back on Thursday in its weakest two-day performance in a month on investor liquidation.
"News from Colombia regarding the health of the crop has been encouraging but the market will prefer to see this in physical stocks," said Abah Ofon, analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
Dealers said coffee roasters have been increasing the use of cheaper robusta coffee in their blends where possible.
"It helps to give them a bit of breathing room," said Bill Raffety, senior analyst for futures brokerage Penson Futures in New York, referring to Colombia's higher crop forecast.
The Andean country produced 8.9 million bags last year and 7.8 million in 2009. In 2008, it produced 11.1 million bags, about its historic annual average.
POOR WEATHER
Adding to the breathing room, was a forecast by Mexico's national coffee association of 2010/11 production at 4.2 million 60-kg bags, in line with output last season.
Coffee exports from Mexico -- a major arabica producer -- have fallen this year from last, raising concerns about the possibility of a smaller crop.
"We don't think the harvest could drop significantly (compared to last year)," Rene Avila, an operations coordinator at the national coffee association Amecafe, told Reuters.
Avila said while the crop would not be significantly smaller than last year, it is coming in more slowly due to unfavorable weather in Mexico's No. 2 coffee growing state of Veracruz.
Frosts in the central states of Hidalgo, San Luis Potosi and Puebla may have damaged the quality of some beans but overall volume is not expected to fall.
"With these prices, producers are not leaving a single bean on the trees," Avila said.
Roasters are filling orders for high-quality coffee from Costa Rica, known for its top-end coffee, with nearly 80 percent of the country's crop already sold, said Ronald Peters, executive director of Icafe.
Costa Rica had originally seen its coffee harvest dropping this year on heavy rains after the beginning of the harvest season in October, but now says the damage was not as bad as originally expected.
The country now sees 2010/11 output at between 1.55 million and 1.57 million 60-kg bags, a 5.4 percent jump from last season, Peters said.
"Luckily, we lost only half of what we thought was damaged (by the rains)," he added.
Prolonged adverse weather conditions and flooding had trimmed coffee production, and also has hurt output in robusta bean producers Indonesia and Vietnam.
Colombia's federation says that with more favorable weather, advances in the rejuvenation program and adequate fertilization, Colombia could reach its official production target of 14 million 60-kg bags in around three years.
