ROBUSTA MEI ---FLAT TO -25
ARABIKA MEI----FLAT TO -4,50
COCOA NY MEI---+10 TO -50
PROFIT TAKING WILL DOMINATE TO COFFEE & COCOA NY MARKET
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Analysis: Confectionary giant sweet on peaceful end to Ivory Coast stand-off
For almost three months the newly elected president of the Ivory Coast has been holed up in a hotel in the country's capital Abidjan, while the man he defeated in November's election clings desperately to power.
The stand-off between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara has been ratcheted up in recent weeks following the latter's decision to ban cocoa exports in an effort to put the squeeze on the finances of the deposed premier.
At present, Ouattara is waiting to take power at the Golf Hotel in Abidjan, protected by United Nations peacekeepers as violence - which has so far claimed close to 300 lives - continues to erupt across the country.
The ban itself is expected to have limited effect, with the bumper crop in Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana ensuring that stockpiles of the cocoa bean remain high in the short-term.
"We would have to start coming into the mid-crop in April, May before we may see supply constraints," Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group, said.
The situation, though, remains extremely unstable - and the longer the stand-off lasts then so the chance of a peaceful resolution to the dispute becomes ever more unlikely.
And for one of the world's largest confectionary companies that's a huge worry.
"It's about as volatile as it gets in the commodity business," Pascal Baltussen, VP Procurement Mars, tells Procurement Leaders. "I'm not sure how effective the ban will be but time will tell. If it stays in place for another six months then it's definitely going to have an effect."
Of course, bans of this sort are nothing new, particularly in Africa, and Javier Hijalva, CPO at Spanish cocoa buyer Natra SA, believes procurement organisations will find a way round the current embargo.
"Cocoa out of the Ivory Coast will reach the consumer one way or the other," he said. "The harvest in the whole of Africa is very good, not only in the Ivory Coast and Ghana."
Indeed it is. Despite the extreme weather and general volatility, cocoa production will exceed demand by 44,000 metric tonnes in the first of the year's cocoa seasons - a welcome relief after a shortfall of almost 50,000 tonnes the previous year.
For a company that has invested so heavily in its Ivory Coast supply base, however, it's still a deeply worrying period for Baltussen and his colleagues.
"We're monitoring the situation through companies that are on the ground for us and at the same time we're keeping a close eye on the situation through various channels we have in the country," he says.
"Obviously we have a very close relationship with our suppliers and they're informing us of every eventuality and things that could possibly happen in the next couple of weeks.
"In the broader sense we're doing everything possible to mitigate the threat to our business. We will do whatever is necessary to maintain the running of our factories - whether that's working with different suppliers or with different regions."
With the president-elect effectively stranded in a hotel and a deposed president determined to hang on to power, the situation in the country continues to look bleak.
Ouattara will hope that cocoa holds the answers, while Gbagbo is banking on that ploy not working.
Mars, meanwhile, has to sit and wait.
soyrce :http://www.procurementleaders.com/news/latestnews/0607-ivory-coast-stand-off/
The stand-off between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara has been ratcheted up in recent weeks following the latter's decision to ban cocoa exports in an effort to put the squeeze on the finances of the deposed premier.
At present, Ouattara is waiting to take power at the Golf Hotel in Abidjan, protected by United Nations peacekeepers as violence - which has so far claimed close to 300 lives - continues to erupt across the country.
The ban itself is expected to have limited effect, with the bumper crop in Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana ensuring that stockpiles of the cocoa bean remain high in the short-term.
"We would have to start coming into the mid-crop in April, May before we may see supply constraints," Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group, said.
The situation, though, remains extremely unstable - and the longer the stand-off lasts then so the chance of a peaceful resolution to the dispute becomes ever more unlikely.
And for one of the world's largest confectionary companies that's a huge worry.
"It's about as volatile as it gets in the commodity business," Pascal Baltussen, VP Procurement Mars, tells Procurement Leaders. "I'm not sure how effective the ban will be but time will tell. If it stays in place for another six months then it's definitely going to have an effect."
Of course, bans of this sort are nothing new, particularly in Africa, and Javier Hijalva, CPO at Spanish cocoa buyer Natra SA, believes procurement organisations will find a way round the current embargo.
"Cocoa out of the Ivory Coast will reach the consumer one way or the other," he said. "The harvest in the whole of Africa is very good, not only in the Ivory Coast and Ghana."
Indeed it is. Despite the extreme weather and general volatility, cocoa production will exceed demand by 44,000 metric tonnes in the first of the year's cocoa seasons - a welcome relief after a shortfall of almost 50,000 tonnes the previous year.
For a company that has invested so heavily in its Ivory Coast supply base, however, it's still a deeply worrying period for Baltussen and his colleagues.
"We're monitoring the situation through companies that are on the ground for us and at the same time we're keeping a close eye on the situation through various channels we have in the country," he says.
"Obviously we have a very close relationship with our suppliers and they're informing us of every eventuality and things that could possibly happen in the next couple of weeks.
"In the broader sense we're doing everything possible to mitigate the threat to our business. We will do whatever is necessary to maintain the running of our factories - whether that's working with different suppliers or with different regions."
With the president-elect effectively stranded in a hotel and a deposed president determined to hang on to power, the situation in the country continues to look bleak.
Ouattara will hope that cocoa holds the answers, while Gbagbo is banking on that ploy not working.
Mars, meanwhile, has to sit and wait.
soyrce :http://www.procurementleaders.com/news/latestnews/0607-ivory-coast-stand-off/
COCOA MARKET WILL BE FOCUSSED ON MID-CROP AND EXPORTBAND
New one-year highs for cocoa were reached in New York recently, with the price up further to US$3,400/tonne, as Presidential hopeful Alassane Ouattara’s month-long ban on exports took a toll on the market.
As Macquarie reported recently, actual supplies have not been affected too much, given that most of Côte d’Ivoire main crop had already been exported before the ban.
“Cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire reached 895,000 tonnes by the end of January, and we suspect any remaining volumes will slip through illegally via Ghana,” said Macquarie.
“However, should the ban be extended and affect the mid-crop sales too, then the supply risks become more real, as we believe that the industry will have less coverage by then.”
As such, Macquarie still sees price risks skewed to the upside in the short term, as financial liquidity problems are halting trade volumes, and there remains much political unrest.
As Macquarie reported recently, actual supplies have not been affected too much, given that most of Côte d’Ivoire main crop had already been exported before the ban.
“Cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire reached 895,000 tonnes by the end of January, and we suspect any remaining volumes will slip through illegally via Ghana,” said Macquarie.
“However, should the ban be extended and affect the mid-crop sales too, then the supply risks become more real, as we believe that the industry will have less coverage by then.”
As such, Macquarie still sees price risks skewed to the upside in the short term, as financial liquidity problems are halting trade volumes, and there remains much political unrest.
Montly Avarege Cocoa Price
| US$ per tonne | |
Jan-2005 | 1549.13 |
Feb-2005 | 1634.60 |
Mar-2005 | 1757.59 |
Apr-2005 | 1585.95 |
May-2005 | 1511.39 |
Jun-2005 | 1539.07 |
Jul-2005 | 1489.01 |
Aug-2005 | 1481.93 |
Sep-2005 | 1504.16 |
Oct-2005 | 1452.55 |
Nov-2005 | 1433.97 |
Dec-2005 | 1517.61 |
Jan-2006 | 1577.78 |
Feb-2006 | 1545.08 |
Mar-2006 | 1544.13 |
Apr-2006 | 1552.37 |
May-2006 | 1594.45 |
Jun-2006 | 1606.65 |
Jul-2006 | 1676.65 |
Aug-2006 | 1610.79 |
Sep-2006 | 1567.42 |
Oct-2006 | 1529.63 |
Nov-2006 | 1581.18 |
Dec-2006 | 1702.50 |
Jan-2007 | 1701.99 |
Feb-2007 | 1813.88 |
Mar-2007 | 1924.20 |
Apr-2007 | 1977.20 |
May-2007 | 2004.84 |
Jun-2007 | 2016.69 |
Jul-2007 | 2152.65 |
Aug-2007 | 1902.09 |
Sep-2007 | 1938.08 |
Oct-2007 | 1914.68 |
Nov-2007 | 1966.84 |
Dec-2007 | 2113.13 |
Jan-2008 | 2215.85 |
Feb-2008 | 2523.07 |
Mar-2008 | 2670.41 |
Apr-2008 | 2628.33 |
May-2008 | 2689.62 |
Jun-2008 | 3021.76 |
Jul-2008 | 2953.68 |
Aug-2008 | 2810.47 |
Sep-2008 | 2678.96 |
Oct-2008 | 2252.28 |
Nov-2008 | 2067.72 |
Dec-2008 | 2457.09 |
Jan-2009 | 2626.00 |
Feb-2009 | 2647.59 |
Mar-2009 | 2509.97 |
Apr-2009 | 2555.17 |
May-2009 | 2480.74 |
Jun-2009 | 2700.36 |
Jul-2009 | 2791.35 |
Aug-2009 | 2956.66 |
Sep-2009 | 3142.86 |
Oct-2009 | 3372.50 |
Nov-2009 | 3384.13 |
Dec-2009 | 3497.58 |
Jan-2010 | 3525.12 |
Feb-2010 | 3276.55 |
Mar-2010 | 3089.65 |
Apr-2010 | 3221.24 |
May-2010 | 3178.48 |
Jun-2010 | 3230.83 |
Jul-2010 | 3229.55 |
Aug-2010 | 3071.71 |
Sep-2010 | 2874.93 |
Oct-2010 | 2927.46 |
Nov-2010 | 2910.31 |
Dec-2010 | 3060.02 |
Jan-2011 | 3164.86 |
Frosts And Droughts In Coffee Areas In Brazil (source ICO)
Year | Dates | Severity (Reuters) | ICO notes |
1902 | End July/early August | Very grave | |
1918 | 24 to 26 June | Grave | |
1942 | End June/early July | Grave | |
1943 | No dates available | Moderate | |
1953 | 4 to 5 July | Grave | |
1955 | 30 July to 1 August | Grave | Slight frost only |
1957 | No dates available | Grave | Not recorded by ICO |
1962 | 25 to 26 July | Light | Slight frost only |
1963 | 5 to 6 August | Moderate | Also drought and fire |
1965 | No dates available | Light | Not recorded by ICO |
1966 | 6 August | Grave | Slight frost only |
1967 | 8 June | Slight frost only | |
1969 | 9 to 10 July | Moderate | |
1972 | 8 to 9 July | Moderate | |
1975 | 17 to 19 July | Very grave | |
1978 | 13 to 16 August | Moderate | |
1979 | 1 June | Moderate | |
1981 | 20 to 22 July | Grave | |
1984 | 25 August | Slight frost only | |
1985 | August to November | Very light | Drought |
1988 | No dates available | Light | Not recorded by ICO |
1994 | 25 to 26 June and 9 to 10 July | Grave/very grave | Frosts and drought |
1999 | August to November | Severe | Drought - 40 percent of crop is estimated to be lost |
2000 | April to July 12 and 17/18 July | Light Light | Frosts Drought |
2003 | Late April to late October | Light | Drought - unusually dry |
2005 | September/October | Light | Drought |
COFEE SAYS
12/17/10 A shortage of high-quality arabica coffee has led to “precariousness of the supply/demand balance,” the ICO said.11/5/10 YoY Colombia's coffee output is set to rise 11% in 2010/11 (October-September) to 9 million 60-kg bags, the country's exporters association said on Thursday.9/1/10 ABN Amro analysts said Brazil, the world's top arabica producer, could "see much less rainfall" next year than is needed for the good development of the 2011-12 crop if this La Nina weather phenomenon proves a significant one 6/18/10 The USDA estimates Brazil’s coffee output to surge 23% to a record 55.3 million bags in the 2010-11 marketing year. In addition, Brazil is expected to boost its harvest of arabica coffee beans, which are valued more than the Robusta by 27% in the year to 41.8 million bags.6/10/10 The International Coffee Organization estimates world coffee production in 2010-2011 at 134 million bags and consumption at 134 million bags.2/9/10 The agricultural survey group of Brazil's Census Bureau, the IBGE, on Tuesday put the upcoming 2010 coffee crop at 46.8 million 60-kilogram bags. IBGE's new data is 15% above the 2009 crop.12/16/09 Brazil harvested 39.5 million bags of coffee this year, up from a September estimate of 39.0 million bags10/20/09 Illy forecasts 2010-11 world coffee production at 145 million 60-kilgrambags, up from 132 million bags in 2009-10. Consumption in 2010 is pegged at around 135 million bags,leaving a 10 million bag surplus, said Illy.9/14/09 The ICO’s August coffee report kept its estimate of 2008-2009 world production at 127 million bags, but raised its estimate of 2008 world consumption from 128.4 to 130.0 million bags. 9/8/09 Brazil's estimates the 2009-2010 coffee crop at 39 million bags, down from 46 million bags YoY.7/16/09 The International Coffee Organization raised its estimate of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 126.1 to 128.8 million bags7/15/09 Brazil is expected to produce a record 52 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2010/11 crop year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.7/2/09 Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009. 6/15/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.5/25/09 Colombia’s April coffee production fell 61% to 345,000, versus 886,000 60-kilogram bags in April last year. Total coffee production in Colombia fell 25% YoY. YoY Coffee exports fell 14%.5/6/09 Fortis Bank estimates 2008-9 world coffee production at 134.2 million (60-kg) bags and consumption at 127.7 million bags.In 2009-2010, Fortis expects world Coffee production at 141.3 million bags and consumption at 128.9 million bags.4/20/09 The International Coffee Organization reduced its estimate of the 2008-2009 world coffee crop from 127.8 to 127 million bags3/10/09 The International Coffee Organization reduced its guess of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 133.4 to 127.8 million bags3/4/2009 The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association lowered its estimate of this year's coffee harvest from 17 to 16 million bags.2/5/09 Brazil estimates the upcoming coffee crop at 39.4 million bags. 1/13/09 The ICO raised its guess of the world's 2008-2009 coffee crops from 132.5 to 134.2 million bags, YoY this is up from 116.2. Consumption for 2008 remained unchanged at 128 million bags. For 2009 they anticipate consumption at 132 million bags.The ICO said Brazil’s coffee production, which follows a biennial cycle (high output one year followed by low the next), could fall from 46m 60kg bags in 2008-09 to between 36.9m and 38.8m bags this year, a drop of 16 to 20 per cent.12/8/2008 The USDA estimates 2008-2009 world ending stocks of coffee at 39.6 million bags -- 29% of use.(Bloomberg) -- World coffee consumption may outstrip production by as much as 8 million bags in 2009-10 because of the smaller crop in Brazil4/9/08 Brazil estimated the upcoming coffee harvest at 44.2 million bags. 2/19/07 Coffee inventories in Brazil, the world's biggest grower, are at a 50-year low, said Alarons Jaime Menahem.1/25/08 ICO estimates coffee production at 116 million bags and consumption at 123 for 2007-08.1/15/08 The International Coffee Organization estimates the world coffee crop at 124.5 million bags, up from 116 million YoY. Consumption is estimated at 125 million bags, up from 123 million bags in 2007.12/11/07 The USDA increased its estimate of the 2007-2008 world coffee crop from 118.9 to 122.9 11/27/07 The USDA expects Colombia's coffee production to increase from 12.2 to 12.4 million bags in 2007-2008.10/13/07 From Barrons: Groundwater levels in Sao Paulo were just 10% of what is necessary to keep coffee trees flowering. Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais have not had decent rain since mid September.10/11/07 The International Coffee Organization kept its guess of 2007-2008 world production and consumption at 114 and 122 million bags.8/26/07 Brazil's Ag Ministry estimates the current coffee crop at 32.6 million bags.8/7//07 The International Coffee Organization left its estimate of 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 112.0 million bags. World consumption was raised from 119.5 million bags to 120 million bags.6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of coffee at 16.8 million bags, the lowest since 1961.5/23/07 USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 36.2 million bags.4/10/07 Brazil expects the 2007-2008 coffee crop at 37.5 million (60-kg) bags, more than expected.3/13/07 The International Coffee Organization increased its estimate of the 2007-2008 world coffee crop from 110.5 to 112.0 million bags. It reduced its estimate of 2007 world consumption from 118 to 117.5 million bags.2/15/07 The International Coffee Organization estimates 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 110.5 million bags They estimate Consumption at 118 million bags, up from 116 million bags last year.1/16/07 The International Coffee Organization expects 07_08 global coffee production at 110.5 million bags and demand at 119 million bags.Green Coffee Association said U.S. coffee stocks were at 4.987 million bags, down 59,646 bags in December.12/15/06 Brazil's government estimates the 2007-2008 coffee crop at 31.7 million bags, less than expected. They said the 2006-2007 coffee crop totaled 42.5 million bags, 4 million bags less than the USDA's estimate.8/25/06 The Brazilian government raised its estimate of the coffee crop from 40.6 to 41.6 million bags. The USDA's estimates the Crop at 44.8 million bags.8/22/06 Bloomberg : Coffee production in India, which supplies 4.5 percent of world exports, will probably decline in the coming year because of damage from heavy rains and pests.5/15/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were down 76.002 bags to 5.2 million bags.The USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 44.8 million bags. 4/17/06 The U.S. Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 81,769 bags in March, at 5.28 million bags.4/10/06 The Brazilian government lowered its estimate of the forthcoming coffee crop from 42.0 to 40.6 million bags.3/16/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were at 5.193 million bags. Up 243,980 bags in February.2/17/06 Dow-Jones Newswire reported that the Ag Secretary of Minas Gerais said that 15% of his state's coffee crop has been lost to dry weather. Half of Brazil's coffee crop comes from the state of Minas Gerais.2/15/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were 4.95 million bags – up 282,693 bags. 1/17/06 The International Coffee Organization increased its estimate of the world's 2006-2007 coffee crop from 120 to 121 million bags. They expect World consumption, at 119 million bags in 2006 and 120 million in 2007.1/17/06 The Green Coffee Association said that December’s U.S. Coffee stocks were down 208,465 bags to 4.6 million bags.12/28/05 The Dow-Jones Newswires credits a fungus in Brazil and too much rain in Vietnam as two recent supporting reasons for Coffee.12/13/05 The International Coffee Organization predicted that the world 2006-2007 coffee crop will total 120 million (60 kg) bags. They estimate consumption at 118 million bags.12/1/05 The USDA increased its estimate of world coffee ending stocks for 2005-2006 from 14.9 to 20.3 million bags. The production estimate was unchanged at 113.2 million bags -- world consumption was lowered from 119.4 to 116.6 million bags.11/28/05 The USDA reduced the estimate of Brazil's 2005-2006 coffee crop from 36.5 to 36.1 million bags.08/15/05 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 118,087 bags at the end of July to 6.06 million bags. 07/12/05 The International Coffee Organization's June Coffee Report lowered its estimate of world coffee production in 2005-2006 from 106 to 105 million (60-kg) bags. They also lowered the 2004-2005 estimation of the world coffee crop from 114 to 110.5 million bags. World consumption for 2004 was projected at 114.4 million bags. 07/12/05 The International Coffee Organization lowered its estimate of Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee production from 13.0 to 11.0 million (60-kg) bags07/05/05 Brazil's Coffee Roasters Association said that coffee consumption in Brazil was up 12% in 2004-2005 to 15.5 million (60-kg.) bags. 06/14/05 The International Coffee Organization estimates the 2005-2006 world coffee production at 106 million (60-kg) bags. They estimate 2004-2005 world consumption at 114 million bags. 06/10/05 The USDA estimates that 2005-2006 world ending coffee stocks will drop 6.3 million bags to 14.9 million bags, the lowest in over two decades. 05/25/05 The USDA estimated Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee crop at 12.2 million bags, down 1.8 million bags from the previous year.05/24/05 The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service released its estimates yesterday of Brazil's coffee crop. They anticipate a harvest of 36.5 million bags of coffee in 2005-2006, down from 42.4 million bags the previous year. The 2005-2006 Arabica crop is estimated at 26.0 million bags, down from 33.4 million bags in 2004-2005. Brazil's ending stocks are expected to fall from 10.44 to 4.81 million bags in 2005-2006. 05/05/05 YoY Brazils April Green Coffee Exports were up 10 percent at 1.71 M Bags.04/22/05 Brazil's coffee crop will total 32.46 million 60-kilogram bags in 2005-06 (July-June), according to the latest estimate released by the National Commodities Supply Corp, on Friday. This compares to 38.7 million bags last year.03/14/05 BBC News reported that Vietnam is suffering its worst drought in 28 years and the coffee crop is being threatened. 03/11/05 Dow Jones Newswires reported that Colombia expects to have another 11.5 million (60-kg) bag coffee crop in 2005-200602/15/05 The Green Coffee Association reported 5.16 million bags at the end of January, up 89,316 bags from the end of December. 02/10/05 The International Coffee Organization kept its estimate of world coffee production at 107 million (60-kg) bags for 2005-2006 with 114 million bags of consumption. For Brazil, they anticipate the coffee crop to total 31.9 million bags.01/18/05 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks finished the year at 5.075 million bags, down 91,483 bags from the end of November.12/20/04 Brazilian coffee consumption could rise to 16 million 60-kg bags in 2005 as Brazil’s economic recovery continues and the drink becomes more popular, a Brazilian coffee industry leader said last Friday. 12/15/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. stocks were down 234,367 bags on November 30th to 5,166,255 bags. 12/15/04 The International Coffee Organization released its first estimates for the world's 2005-2006 coffee crop, pegging production at 107 million 60-kg bags and consumption at 114 million bags. If true, the ending stocks to use ratio will drop to 16%, the lowest in over two decades.12/10/04 Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp. estimated the 2005-2006 coffee crop at 31.9 million 60-kg bags.12/03/04 The USDA said that world 2004-2005 ending coffee stocks increased by 3.25 million bags to 25.8 million 60-kg bags, or 22% of annual use. The USDA pegged world production at 119.0 million 60-kg bags and implied use of 115.8 million bags.12/02/04 Brazil exported 1.86 million 60-kg bags of coffee in November, down from 2.3 million bags in October.12/01/04 The chairman of Vietnam's Coffee and Cocoa Association said that drought will reduce Vietnam's coffee crop to roughly 10.5 million 60-kg bags in 2004-2005, down from 15 million bags in 2003-2004.11/16/04 The Green Coffee Association said yesterday that coffee stocks at the end of October were down 218,126 bags to 5.4 million 60-kg bags.11/15/04 The International Coffee Organization said that world coffee production will total 113 million 60-kg bags in 2004-2005, down from 122 million bags this year.09/17/04 After an 11 year absence, the U.S. said that it will rejoin the International Coffee Organization.08/18/04 The National Coffee Council said that Brazil's co-ops held 3.47 million 60-kg. bags at the end of July, down 43% from a year ago.06/16/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks totaled 5.84 million bags at the end of May.06/10/04 The USDA said that 2004-2005 world production of coffee will increase 117.7 million 60-kg bags, up from 106.9 million bags in 2003-2004. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 598,000 bags to 23.9 million bags, 20% of annual use.05/28/04 Brazil's coffee crop experienced cold temperatures overnight, but no freezing was reported.04/27/04 (Reuters) There are Signs that Brazil's winter may be colder this year with increased risk of a crop-damaging frost. Weather forecasters noted that El Nino and La Nina weather patterns in the eastern Pacific were neutral and this traditionally prompted colder winters in Brazil. "We expect more intense cold fronts than in recent years and greater risk of frost in in Parana and west Sao Paulo state but only severe fronts would reach southern Minas," said Cassia Beu of private forecaster Somar. 03/15/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 204,590 bags to 5.83 million bags.03/05/04 Brazil's coffee exports totalled 1.08 million 60-kg bags in February, down 49% from a year ago.02/19/04 Stocks held by Brazilian cooperatives totaled 4.55 million 60-kilogram bags at January's end, 35% less than a year earlier, the National Coffee Council said.02/10/04 Brazil in January shipped 1.54 million 60-kilogram bags overseas, below 2.1 million bags in January 2003, according to the Council of Green Coffee Exporters. Shipments in the July-June season through January were 13.18 million bags, 25% lower than in the same period last year.02/09/04 U.S. green coffee roastings totalled 19.3 million 60-kg. bags in 2003, the most in 30 years. Jan 04 Coffee 'lowers diabetes risk' coffee the health food!
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