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Saturday, April 9, 2011

ANALYSIS-Current commodity rally more selective than in 2008

It's simple enough tosee that many of the world's key commodities have surpassedtheir peaks from 2008, including gold, corn, and copper; othersare still well behind, oil and wheat to name but two.

But the common theme is elusive: robust Chinese growth can help explain copper's buoyancy, but is irrelevant for coffee; loose money policy has clearly aided gold, but done less for oil; the tightest stocks since the Great  Depression have fuelled corn, while wheat is far from its peaks.

NY Coffee and Cocoa market close review April 8, 2011

U.S. cocoa futures finishedlower in the highest volume in 2-1/2 months on Friday, as theexport ban in top grower Ivory Coast appeared close to being lifted and the European Union eased its sanctions on the country.

Arabica coffee finished strong, confirming the key reversal higher made earlier this week, while raw sugar closed lower. Volume was heavy in all three markets as the May/July role was in full swing.

COFFEE
* May arabica coffee futures rose 2.15 cents to close at $2.7495 per lb.

* May closed the week up 5.8 percent.

* Settlement confirms Tuesday's sharp move higher as a key reversal - traders.

* Market continued to be underpinned by tight supplies while the strong U.S. dollar also gave the market a lift - traders.

* Technical buy signals, following two rallies this week, attracted more buying - traders.

COCOA
* Key July cocoa futures dropped $17 to settle at $2,985 a tonne.

* July closed the week down 1.3 percent.

* Total volume rose at 39,449 lots, the highest since Jan. 21 - preliminary Thomson Reuters data showed.