Cocoa consolidates while sugar jumps on ethanol outlook
* Strong oil prices ignite sugar rally
* Cocoa quietly consolidates after crash fireworks (
Sugar futures shot up on Wednesday due to strong oil prices which could prompt top producer Brazil to funnel more cane into ethanol and further exacerbating already tight supplies in the market.
Brent crude edged closer to 2-1/2-year highs on as Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi vowed to resist to the end a rebellion against his regime and his top oil official warned of higher oil prices.
New York's May raw sugar contract soared 1.16 cents or 3.96 percent to trade at 30.42 cents per lb at 11:15 a.m. EST (1615 GMT). London's May white sugar futures gained $25.20 to trade at $758.60 per tonne.
Sterling Smith, senior analyst for commodity brokerage Country Hedging Inc. in Minnesota, said strong oil prices meant "more cane will be converted into ethanol and there will be less sugar for the market."
"Sugar is tight and will remain tight for the coming quarter until Brazil, the world's largest producer, begins its harvest," added Nick Penney of broker Sucden Financial.
ED&F Man said in a monthly note on the sugar market that many analysts were projecting that sugar production from the centre-south of Brazil would increase in 2011/12, compared to the 33.5 million tonnes produced in 2010/11.
"Millers are expected to divert more cane to sugar production, at the expense of ethanol, in order to take advantage of the high level of world and domestic prices."
The focus of the sugar market was also on the nomination of vessels to pick up around 965,000 tonnes of Brazilian, Thai and Central American sugar to be delivered to U.S.-based trade house Cargill against the expired March raw sugar contract.
"The pace of nominations will be keenly monitored," said James Kirkup, head of sugar brokerage at ABN AMRO (Markets) UK Ltd.
COFFEE SLIPS COCOA CONSOIDATES
Coffee futures skipped lower after an early runup petered out while cocoa, which saw prices crash over 11 percent in the previous session, appeared to be consolidating at this time.
The cocoa market remained focused on top producer Ivory Coast where violence continued. Youth supporters of incumbent Laurent Gbagbo rampaged through the business district of Abidjan on Tuesday, pillaging shops owned by foreigners.
"If there's a civil war then the (cocoa) price could go very much higher," said Gary Mead, an analyst at VM Group.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecast earlier this week that the global cocoa market will swing to surplus in 2010/11 season which ends in September due to rising production.
New York's May cocoa contract rose $8 to trade at $3,628 per tonne. Liffe's May cocoa contract shed 10 pounds to trade at 2,315 pounds per tonne.
Smith said cocoa is consolidating "after yesterday's fiasco" when the exchange nullified several orders after the spike lower.
Coffee futures were weaker, with arabicas losing steam after an early runup.
source: http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/SOFTS-Sugar-jumps-on-ethanol-outlook-cocoa-consolidates-2011-03-02T164427Z
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
COFFEE AND COCOA FORECAST FOR TODAY AND MARKET CLOSING REVIEW 1 MAR 2011
- U.S. cocoa futures closed lower Tuesday in a session which saw it hit a fresh 32-year top before bean values plunged and then came roaring back in a span of two minutes during trading.
Raw sugar declined as the trade digested deliveries in the expired March raw sugar contract and coffee slipped in mostly quiet dealings.
RAW SUGAR
* The benchmark May raw sugar contract fell 0.19 cent to close at 29.26 cents per lb.
* Traders said no major issues came up after exchange turned on order matching engine in an attempt to curb excessive speculation.
* Market digested deliveries of about 965,000 tonnes of raw sugar against expired March raw sugar contract.
* "Sugar is backing and filling at this time," said Sterling Smith, an analyst for brokers Country Hedging Inc.
* Market took note of news that merchant Czarnikow raised its forecast for a global sugar deficit in 2010/11 to 3.7 million tonnes. [ID:nLDE7202B0]
COFFEE
* May arabica coffee futures fell 2.40 cents to settle at $2.693 per lb.
* Modest speculative profit-taking seen in overbought arabica futures - dealers.
* Tight supplies underpinned prices - traders.
* Total open interest reached 122,885 lots on Feb. 28, the lowest level since March 15, 2010 - ICE data.
* The spot March contract ended the day at a par to second position May to close at $2.7170 per lb.
COCOA
* Benchmark May cocoa futures dropped $75 or by 2.03 percent to close at $3,620 per tonne.
* On Monday, the contract ended at $3,695, the highest close since January 1979.
* May premium to July closed at $47, narrowing further from $61 on Monday.
* The market tumbled more than $450 in 60 seconds and then rebounded $349 the next minute, forcing the exchange to cancel some trades. [ID:nN01424852]
* Market focus still on political turmoil in top producer Ivory Coast.
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
Raw sugar declined as the trade digested deliveries in the expired March raw sugar contract and coffee slipped in mostly quiet dealings.
RAW SUGAR
* The benchmark May raw sugar contract
* Traders said no major issues came up after exchange turned on order matching engine in an attempt to curb excessive speculation.
* Market digested deliveries of about 965,000 tonnes of raw sugar against expired March raw sugar contract.
* "Sugar is backing and filling at this time," said Sterling Smith, an analyst for brokers Country Hedging Inc.
* Market took note of news that merchant Czarnikow raised its forecast for a global sugar deficit in 2010/11 to 3.7 million tonnes. [ID:nLDE7202B0]
COFFEE
* May arabica coffee futures
* Modest speculative profit-taking seen in overbought arabica futures - dealers.
* Tight supplies underpinned prices - traders.
* Total open interest reached 122,885 lots on Feb. 28, the lowest level since March 15, 2010 - ICE data.
* The spot March contract
COCOA
* Benchmark May cocoa futures
* On Monday, the contract ended at $3,695, the highest close since January 1979.
* May premium to July
* The market tumbled more than $450 in 60 seconds and then rebounded $349 the next minute, forcing the exchange to cancel some trades. [ID:nN01424852]
* Market focus still on political turmoil in top producer Ivory Coast.
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
Indonesia supply woes to add froth to coffee market
* Indonesians reluctant to sell, beans quality bad
* Vietnam emerges as key seller
* Sumatra beans at $80 discount; Vietnam $140
A bad coffee harvest in Indonesia could compound worries about a scarcity of good quality beans, allowing the world's second-largest robusta producer to give a filip to global prices even as rival Vietnam steps up exports.
More robustas from top producer Vietnam could potentially weigh on prices, but lagging sales from Indonesia will send buyers scrambling for beans -- replicating a supply concern in the arabica market after heavy rains slashed output in South America.
With physical tightness expected to influence sentiment in 2011 and speculators unwilling to turn short, robusta is likely to ride on fundamentals to reach new highs beyond a near three-year peak around $2,400 a tonne.
Robusta, a bitter-tasting variety used in instant coffee, has tracked rallies in premium arabica beans to levels not seen in more than 30 years to stand at around 278 U.S. cents a pound.
Helping underpin prices will be an increase in global consumption. [COF/POLL]
This will put a floor under prices, even though Vietnam's harvest will again be good.
"We have seen investors shifting their focus from grains to soft commodities. It's due to quality concerns. Investors may think the grains and oilseeds markets are overdone now," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "By the end of the year, robusta may top $2,800 (a tonne)."
Excessive rains have troubled Indonesia's output in 2010 and early in 2011. This has triggered a shift in the harvesting season and raised fears there will not be many beans left in the middle of this year when the harvest normally starts.
While Vietnam has emerged as a key seller following a bumper crop and high prices in London, exporters in Indonesia are struggling to find quality beans after an early harvest yielded a largely black, rotten and mouldy crop.
Indonesian robusta is more expensive than Vietnamese beans because of its bold flavour. Despite favourable international prices, many exporters are reluctant to sell forward, preferring to honour old contracts and prevent defaults.
Indonesian robusta fetches a discount of $80 a tonne to London's May contract -- much smaller than the $140 discount for beans from Vietnam.
SHORT SUPPLY
"Unfavourable weather conditions in major coffee-producing regions continue to increase uncertainties regarding supplies of some origins," the International Coffee Organization said in its latest report.
"Currently there are possibilities for replacing those origins in short supply. However, this is likely to become more difficult."
Robusta accounts for about 85 percent of Indonesia's output, while the rest is higher value, aromatic arabica.
Combining robusta and arabica, Indonesia is the world's third-largest producer after Brazil and Vietnam, accounting for around 7 percent of global output. It mainly exports beans to roasters in Europe.
"At the same period last year, you could buy beans at $100 to $120 discount, but differentials have not widened now, even though more beans are coming in," said a dealer in Bandar Lampung, the provincial capital of Lampung on the main growing island of Sumatra.
"Exporters only want to sell nearby. Also, many local roasters are devouring domestic beans because they are expanding capacity. People have been expecting the differential to widen because of pressure from futures, but it doesn't happen."
Harvests in Sumatra usually start in March or April, but farmers have been picking cherries since January as the flowering season began earlier in some areas after the previous crop ended in August last year.
The ICO puts Indonesia's output at 9.5 million 60-kg bags in the crop year to September 2011, down 16.5 percent from a year ago, while Vietnam's output has risen 1.3 percent from the previous crop to 18.43 million bags.
Wild weather could cut Indonesia's coffee exports by 15 percent to 7.4 million bags in the 2010/11 marketing year, according to the USDA, or around 7 percent of global exports.
Vietnam's coffee exports between October 2010 and February, the first five months of the 2010/2011 season, were estimated to reach 8.75 million bags, up 5 percent from 8.33 million 60-kg bags shipped a year ago, the government said. [ID:nHAN540998]
KEEN SELLERS
"Even if more than half of the Vietnamese 2010/2011 crop has already been sold up to now, farmers remain keen sellers," said a dealer in Hong Kong, who trades Vietnamese robusta.
"At a price of $2,380 in London, for sure you are a seller. It's historically one of the best prices farmers can get. It would be a mistake to stop selling."
Some farmers in Vietnam are still holding on to stocks, hoping for domestic prices to surpass an all-time high above $2,190 a tonne, but they could be tempted to sell the rest at high prices to roasters unable to secure supply from Indonesia.
"I guess roasters have to source from Vietnam, and even local Indonesia roasters often import from Vietnam whenever the domestic price is high," said a dealer in Singapore who trades robustas.
"Roasters have preferences when it comes to taste, but for the market here, we prefer Indonesian robusta because it has a stronger taste, while Vietnamese beans are more neutral."
For the Indonesians, steady demand from local roasters will ensure domestic prices stay at their highest since mid-2008 at around $2,200 a tonne. The USDA expects domestic consumption to rise nearly 3 percent to 1.9 million bags in the 2010/11 year.
"These days, there's no need for coffee traders to worry," said Rachim Kartabrata, executive director of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association. "If there are no foreign buyers, domestic roasters will definitely buy."
The association, which uses calendar year, expects Indonesian coffee bean production in 2011 to fall by 30 percent from an estimated 600,000 tonnes in 2010, as rains in key producing areas damage cherries
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
* Vietnam emerges as key seller
* Sumatra beans at $80 discount; Vietnam $140
A bad coffee harvest in Indonesia could compound worries about a scarcity of good quality beans, allowing the world's second-largest robusta producer to give a filip to global prices even as rival Vietnam steps up exports.
More robustas from top producer Vietnam could potentially weigh on prices, but lagging sales from Indonesia will send buyers scrambling for beans -- replicating a supply concern in the arabica market after heavy rains slashed output in South America.
With physical tightness expected to influence sentiment in 2011 and speculators unwilling to turn short, robusta is likely to ride on fundamentals to reach new highs beyond a near three-year peak around $2,400 a tonne.
Robusta, a bitter-tasting variety used in instant coffee, has tracked rallies in premium arabica beans to levels not seen in more than 30 years to stand at around 278 U.S. cents a pound.
Helping underpin prices will be an increase in global consumption. [COF/POLL]
This will put a floor under prices, even though Vietnam's harvest will again be good.
"We have seen investors shifting their focus from grains to soft commodities. It's due to quality concerns. Investors may think the grains and oilseeds markets are overdone now," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. "By the end of the year, robusta may top $2,800 (a tonne)."
Excessive rains have troubled Indonesia's output in 2010 and early in 2011. This has triggered a shift in the harvesting season and raised fears there will not be many beans left in the middle of this year when the harvest normally starts.
While Vietnam has emerged as a key seller following a bumper crop and high prices in London, exporters in Indonesia are struggling to find quality beans after an early harvest yielded a largely black, rotten and mouldy crop.
Indonesian robusta is more expensive than Vietnamese beans because of its bold flavour. Despite favourable international prices, many exporters are reluctant to sell forward, preferring to honour old contracts and prevent defaults.
Indonesian robusta fetches a discount of $80 a tonne to London's May contract
SHORT SUPPLY
"Unfavourable weather conditions in major coffee-producing regions continue to increase uncertainties regarding supplies of some origins," the International Coffee Organization said in its latest report.
"Currently there are possibilities for replacing those origins in short supply. However, this is likely to become more difficult."
Robusta accounts for about 85 percent of Indonesia's output, while the rest is higher value, aromatic arabica.
Combining robusta and arabica, Indonesia is the world's third-largest producer after Brazil and Vietnam, accounting for around 7 percent of global output. It mainly exports beans to roasters in Europe.
"At the same period last year, you could buy beans at $100 to $120 discount, but differentials have not widened now, even though more beans are coming in," said a dealer in Bandar Lampung, the provincial capital of Lampung on the main growing island of Sumatra.
"Exporters only want to sell nearby. Also, many local roasters are devouring domestic beans because they are expanding capacity. People have been expecting the differential to widen because of pressure from futures, but it doesn't happen."
Harvests in Sumatra usually start in March or April, but farmers have been picking cherries since January as the flowering season began earlier in some areas after the previous crop ended in August last year.
The ICO puts Indonesia's output at 9.5 million 60-kg bags in the crop year to September 2011, down 16.5 percent from a year ago, while Vietnam's output has risen 1.3 percent from the previous crop to 18.43 million bags.
Wild weather could cut Indonesia's coffee exports by 15 percent to 7.4 million bags in the 2010/11 marketing year, according to the USDA, or around 7 percent of global exports.
Vietnam's coffee exports between October 2010 and February, the first five months of the 2010/2011 season, were estimated to reach 8.75 million bags, up 5 percent from 8.33 million 60-kg bags shipped a year ago, the government said. [ID:nHAN540998]
KEEN SELLERS
"Even if more than half of the Vietnamese 2010/2011 crop has already been sold up to now, farmers remain keen sellers," said a dealer in Hong Kong, who trades Vietnamese robusta.
"At a price of $2,380 in London, for sure you are a seller. It's historically one of the best prices farmers can get. It would be a mistake to stop selling."
Some farmers in Vietnam are still holding on to stocks, hoping for domestic prices to surpass an all-time high above $2,190 a tonne, but they could be tempted to sell the rest at high prices to roasters unable to secure supply from Indonesia.
"I guess roasters have to source from Vietnam, and even local Indonesia roasters often import from Vietnam whenever the domestic price is high," said a dealer in Singapore who trades robustas.
"Roasters have preferences when it comes to taste, but for the market here, we prefer Indonesian robusta because it has a stronger taste, while Vietnamese beans are more neutral."
For the Indonesians, steady demand from local roasters will ensure domestic prices stay at their highest since mid-2008 at around $2,200 a tonne. The USDA expects domestic consumption to rise nearly 3 percent to 1.9 million bags in the 2010/11 year.
"These days, there's no need for coffee traders to worry," said Rachim Kartabrata, executive director of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association. "If there are no foreign buyers, domestic roasters will definitely buy."
The association, which uses calendar year, expects Indonesian coffee bean production in 2011 to fall by 30 percent from an estimated 600,000 tonnes in 2010, as rains in key producing areas damage cherries
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
Tanzanian coffee price falls on poor quality
* Prices remain close to record highs
* Quality poor, typical of end-season harvest
Tanzania's coffee prices fell slightly at its latest auction last week due to the poor quality of beans nearing the end of the harvest season, but traders said on Tuesday that demand remained high.
The price of top-grade coffee harvests has eased only slightly from the all-time high fetched towards the end of January.
Tight supplies have forced the state-run Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB) to reduce the coffee auction to every two weeks from weekly.
"Prices haven't changed much in the past few auctions, although end-of-season coffee beans are usually of low quality. This shows there is still strong demand for Tanzanian coffee in the market," Athanasio Massenha, commercial manager at the Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union, told Reuters by phone from Moshi, where the auctions are held.
"Exporters still have obligations to fulfil. I also personally have a few orders myself that I am confident of meeting."
TCB said more than 96 percent of the total estimated production for the 2010/11 (June-April) season had already been sold.
Tanzania, Africa's fourth-largest coffee grower after Ethiopia, Uganda and Ivory Coast, produces mainly arabica and some robusta coffee. Prices of its arabica normally track the New York market, while those of robusta take direction from London.
Traders said there were a few auctions left before the coffee season officially comes to a close.
"Many farmers are now doing stock clearance for the few remaining bags of coffee that they still have after having already sold most of their harvests," said a trader at a leading coffee exporting company.
TCB forecasts Tanzania's 2010/11 (June/April) crop to come in at 55,000 tonnes, up from 36,000 tonnes in the previous season.
"Overall average price at Moshi exchange for mild arabica was down by $4.39 per 50 kgs compared to the last auction," TCB said in its report.
"Average prices for arabica and robusta were above the terminal market by $3.82 and $7.35, respectively, per 50 kgs."
East African coffee is normally packed in 60-kg bags, but prices are quoted for quantities of 50 kg.
Benchmark grade AA sold at $248.80-$332.80 per bag, compared with $235.60-$329.40 per bag previously. The average price was $294.14 per bag, down from $308.22 previously.
Grade A fetched $240.00-$310.00 per bag, compared with $249.80-$311.00 per bag at the previous sale, and got an average price of $295.86, up from $286.21 previously.
TCB said 12,348 60-kg bags were offered at the latest sale and 11,006 bags were sold. At the previous sale, a total of 10,715 60-kg bags were up for sale, with 10,422 bags sold.
The auction was held on Thursday and TCB issued the results on Tuesday.
PRICE (dollars)
GRADE OFFERED SOLD LOW HIGH AVERAGE
AA 2,508 2,361 248.80 332.80 294.14
A 2,819 2,377 240.00 310.00 295.86
B 3,911 3,443 215.00 310.00 287.63
PB 850 773 200.00 275.00 248.26
C 1,436 1,228 200.00 278.00 256.74
ROBUSTA FAQ 824 824 94.80 98.00 96.75
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
* Quality poor, typical of end-season harvest
Tanzania's coffee prices fell slightly at its latest auction last week due to the poor quality of beans nearing the end of the harvest season, but traders said on Tuesday that demand remained high.
The price of top-grade coffee harvests has eased only slightly from the all-time high fetched towards the end of January.
Tight supplies have forced the state-run Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB) to reduce the coffee auction to every two weeks from weekly.
"Prices haven't changed much in the past few auctions, although end-of-season coffee beans are usually of low quality. This shows there is still strong demand for Tanzanian coffee in the market," Athanasio Massenha, commercial manager at the Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union, told Reuters by phone from Moshi, where the auctions are held.
"Exporters still have obligations to fulfil. I also personally have a few orders myself that I am confident of meeting."
TCB said more than 96 percent of the total estimated production for the 2010/11 (June-April) season had already been sold.
Tanzania, Africa's fourth-largest coffee grower after Ethiopia, Uganda and Ivory Coast, produces mainly arabica and some robusta coffee. Prices of its arabica normally track the New York market, while those of robusta take direction from London.
Traders said there were a few auctions left before the coffee season officially comes to a close.
"Many farmers are now doing stock clearance for the few remaining bags of coffee that they still have after having already sold most of their harvests," said a trader at a leading coffee exporting company.
TCB forecasts Tanzania's 2010/11 (June/April) crop to come in at 55,000 tonnes, up from 36,000 tonnes in the previous season.
"Overall average price at Moshi exchange for mild arabica was down by $4.39 per 50 kgs compared to the last auction," TCB said in its report.
"Average prices for arabica and robusta were above the terminal market by $3.82 and $7.35, respectively, per 50 kgs."
East African coffee is normally packed in 60-kg bags, but prices are quoted for quantities of 50 kg.
Benchmark grade AA sold at $248.80-$332.80 per bag, compared with $235.60-$329.40 per bag previously. The average price was $294.14 per bag, down from $308.22 previously.
Grade A fetched $240.00-$310.00 per bag, compared with $249.80-$311.00 per bag at the previous sale, and got an average price of $295.86, up from $286.21 previously.
TCB said 12,348 60-kg bags were offered at the latest sale and 11,006 bags were sold. At the previous sale, a total of 10,715 60-kg bags were up for sale, with 10,422 bags sold.
The auction was held on Thursday and TCB issued the results on Tuesday.
PRICE (dollars)
GRADE OFFERED SOLD LOW HIGH AVERAGE
AA 2,508 2,361 248.80 332.80 294.14
A 2,819 2,377 240.00 310.00 295.86
B 3,911 3,443 215.00 310.00 287.63
PB 850 773 200.00 275.00 248.26
C 1,436 1,228 200.00 278.00 256.74
ROBUSTA FAQ 824 824 94.80 98.00 96.75
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
Kenya coffee prices drop at latest sale
The average price of Kenya's benchmark AA coffee grade <COF-AA-KE> slid to $472.83 per 50kg
bag from $537.34 per at the previous sale last week, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) said on Tuesday .
The maximum price for a single batch was $600, down from $661 as prices eased off last month's record high of $1,022, when tight supply pushed up prices.
An NCE official said the 2010/11 coffee marketing season could close early, following a dip in volumes and crop quality, and auctions may be held every two weeks rather than weekly.
The east African nation is a relatively small coffee producer globally, but its specialty beans are highly sought after for blending with beans from other countries.
GRADE THIS SALE AVERAGE PRICE PREVIOUS SALE
AA 600-308 472.83 661-313
AB 583-288 405.02 615-306
C 409-300 346.71 381-294
PB 520-308 398.89 527-296
T 322-65 240.35 301-81
TT 421-303 339.47 401-278
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/auth/login.aspx
Costa Rica coffee exports rise 12.5 pct in Feb
Coffee exports from Costa Rica rose 12.5 percent in February in their fifth straight month of increases compared to last year as producers try to quickly sell beans to take advantage of high prices.
Costa Rica, known for its top-quality arabica coffee, expects 2010/11 coffee production to rise as much as 5.4 percent above last season's crop after damages from heavy rains proved to be less serious than originally thought.
The Central American country sees output at between 1.55 million and 1.57 million 60-kg bags, a jump from the 1.49 million produced last cycle. Exports in the first five months of the coffee year, which began in October, rose 18.6 percent compared to the same period last year.
"The producers are taking advantage of the high prices. We are selling on average at $70 above what we were paid last year," Ronald Peters, director of the country's national coffee institute known as Icafe, told Reuters.
May arabica futures <KCc2> hit their highest level in three decades on Feb. 22 at $2.7840 per pound and prices have doubled since June 2010. Most of Costa Rica's coffee is exported but some is consumed internally.
Below is a table of coffee exports in 60-kg bags from Costa Rica:
MONTH EXPORTS OF 60-KG BAGS OF COFFEE
2009-2010 2010-2011 PCT CHANGE
OCTOBER 22,807 34,003
NOVEMBER 32,200 50,531
DECEMBER 71,090 76,322
JANUARY 118,229 137,912
FEBRUARY 149,958 168,680 +12.5
MARCH 211,780
APRIL 161,086
MAY 157,245
JUNE 132,631
JULY 79,019
AUGUST 43,715
SEPTEMBER 12,026
TOTAL 1,191,788
TOTAL (OCT-FEB) 394,284 467,447 +18.6
*Some figures are preliminary and may be subject to revision
Liffe cocoa falls from 7-month high, coffee flat
* Liffe May cocoa ends down 56 pounds at 2,325 pounds a tonne, having earlier hit a fresh 7-month top of 2,389 pounds, and was later pushed lower by the ICE market after sell stops were hit. Market is supported by violence in Ivory Coast as the world's top grower moves closer to civil war.
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