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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Analisys : Coffee may be on high level as higher comsuption and lower supplies

LONDON, March 31 2011 - International Coffee Organization Executive Director Jose Sette said on Thursday that coffee prices may be on high level as its supplies are tight for the rest of the year.

Arabica coffee prices rose to the highest level in 34 years earlier this month with supplies struggling to keep pace with rising demand for the commodity.

ICO has revised its estimate for world coffee consumption in 2010. First, ICO estimated the consumption in 2011 was about 132.5 million, but the latest, the body estimates to 134 million (60-kg) bags.

Global coffee consumption in 2009 was estimated at 131.2 million, virtually unchanged from a year earlier.

In other side, according to ICO data, coffee stocks in producing countries at the beginning of the 2010/11 crop year were at the lowest level since it began keeping records in 1965.----

( Forecast and analisys ): US COFFEE AND COCOA market close for today, March 31, 2011

Coffee:

- May arabica coffee futures eased 0.65 cent to settled at $2.6415 per lb.

- Market extends correction from recent rally to 32-year high.

- For the quarter, arabica coffee is up 9.83 percent.

- For Thursday's session, Cordier said activity in bean futures "looks pretty dismal."

- Market fundamentals still seen as bullish due to shortage of high quality washed arabica beans.

Q1 ended , Arabica up 9,8 %, on worried supplies


NEW YORK, March 31, 2011 - In the first quarter , Arabica coffee futures is higher 9.83 percent as tight supplies of high quality washed arabica beans sparked a rally in the market to a 32-year high.

The key May arabica coffee contract ended Thursday at $2.6415 per lb, down 0.65 cent on the day, but the market is up 9.83 percent compared from the end-2010 to close at $2.405. ----

First Quarter ( Q1 ) For NY Cocoa: down 2.7 %

NEW YORK, March 31, 2011 - U.S. cocoa futures ended the first quarter of 2011 on Thursday by falling 2.7 percent from the previous quarter, posting its first quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2010.

The benchmark May cocoa contract on ICE Futures U.S. fell $35 to end at $2,952 per tonne. That is down 2.7 percent from the end of the 4th quarter of 2010 when it finished at $3,035 per tonne.----

Forecast for Cocoa : Cocoa may fall again as Quattara almost took control San Pedro

Forces loyal to Alassane Ouattara, have marched into the major cocoa port of San Pedro.San Pedro is a strategically important town because it ships half the cocoa beans from the world's top cocoa grower.

The witnesses said that  shooting erupted in the town overnight on Wednesday. One said he thought pro-Ouattara forces had already seized control of San Pedro's airport although this could not be independently confirmed.

The witnesses also told that shooting started at around 9 pm (2100 GMT) then the rebels' vehicles drive into the town.

The disputed election that was meant to draw a line under a 2002-3 civil war has instead reignited it, as rebels who control the northern half of the country and now back Ouattara advance south into Gbagbo's territory from all sides.

Pro-Quattara forces seized the official capital Yamoussoukro on Wednesday, and they have advanced thousands of miles in the east towards the main city of Abidjan, where analysts expect the fiercest battles will be.

Earlier, Captain Leon Alla, a defence spokesman for Ouattara, said his forces took control of Sinfra on Tuesday and Bouafle and Soubre, 130km north of San Pedro, on Wednesday.

Residents of Tiebisso, 40km north of the capital, also reported fighting.

Ouattara's prime minister Guillaume Soro told French radio Gbagbo had just "hours" to leave power peacefully.------