NY COCOA Forecast for today, April 28, 2011

SINGAPORE, April 28, 2011 - New York cocoa will rise more to $3,255 per tonne, as the current wave has not completed.
 

A surge on Wednesday has confirmed an upward wave "C", progressing towards the 100 percent Fibonacci projection level at $3,255, based on the length of the wave "A".
 

The upside of the wave "C", however, could be extended to $3,400, the 161.8 percent Fibonacci projection level, should the resistance at $3,255 be cleared.
 

There may not be a retracement before $3,255, as the strong bullish momentum gained during the previous trading session may continue to push cocoa up.
Source: reuters

NY coffee ( arabica ) Forecast for today, April 28, 2011

SINGAPORE, April 28, 2011 - New York coffee is biased to rise to $3.06 per lb, as the current consolidation may develop into a bullish flag pattern.
 

Strategically, the pattern will be confirmed when coffee rises above a resistance of $2.9850, derived from the upper channel line of a descending channel.
 

But a fall below $2.93 will invalidate the bullish outlook as a bearish target at $2.8895 will be established based on a double-top.

Source : Reuters

Forecast : Indonesia '11 cocoa exports may drop 12.5pct, more falls seen

JAKARTA, April 28, 2011 - Cocoa exports from Indonesia, the world's No.3 producer, may fall as much as 12.5 percent this year due to wet weather hitting output, and is set to drop further in 2012 on rising domestic consumption, the Indonesian Cocoa Association said on Wednesday .

Cocoa exports from Southeast Asia's largest economy will be between 280,000 tonnes and 300,000 tonnes this year, down from 320,000 tonnes in 2010, Zulhefi Sikumbang, chairman of an association known as Askindo, told a news conference.

Indonesian production will be flat at about 600,000 tonnes this year, as increased output from new planting offsets the impact of heavy rains, Askindo said last month.

NY coffee Cocoa market close review for today, April 27, 2011

COFFEE

* July arabica coffee futures reversed to close up  0.10 cent at $2.9640 per lb.
 

* Contract remained near last week's 34-year peak at  $3.0250 per lb.
 

* Market eased for most of the day on pressure from the commodity complex, which fell as investors took profits ahead  of the policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve -  traders.

LONDON Coffee and Cocoa market close review for today, April 27, 2011

* Liffe July robusta coffee rose $34 to close at  $2,536 a tonne after setting a contract high of $2,555. Robustas  finally gained some ground on the arabica market following a  prolonged decline in its relative value.

* Liffe July cocoa ended 20 pounds higher at 1,927  pounds a tonne. Traders are monitoring the situation in top  grower Ivory Coast, where the cocoa sector is set to resume  operations within days following a violent post-election  conflict.
Source : Reuters

Cocoa Brazil Delivery Up 12 %

BRASILIA, April 27, 2011 - Deliveries of cocoa to warehouses from the main growing regions in Brazil were up 12 percent from a year ago, with just one week left before the 2010/11 season ends, Bahia Commercial Association data showed on Tuesday.

Cocoa deliveries have slowed to a trickle in the lull between the end of the main crop and the start of the forthcoming mid crop which should begin harvesting in May or June depending on the region.

The mid crop in the top cocoa state Bahia is likely to fall about 15 percent from last year's to around 1.1 million 60-kg bags (66,000 tonnes), though output has been climbing in other states and may compensate if the trend continues next season.

Fotecast : Indonesia Vietnam and Thailand Coffee for today April 27, 2011

INDONESIA

SUMMARY- Additional showers and thundershowers yesterday, 0.10-1.50+ inches (3-38+ mm). Temperatures 78-94F (26-34C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Tropical showers and thundershowers likely, rainfall amounts 0.25-1.25+ inches (6-32+ mm). Temperatures 77-94F (25-34C).

TONIGHT...Showers diminish overnight.

Italians keep drinking coffee despite price rises

MILAN, April 26, 2011  - Italians keep drinking coffee, despite rising prices, and this year they are consuming as much or even slightly more than in 2010 although they have more at home to save money, a senior industry official said.

Italy is one of Europe's major coffee markets, using about 5.7-5.8 kg per head and with total consumption of 5.8 million 60-kg coffee bags in 2009, according to data from the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).

Italy's coffee demand eased 0.2-0.3 percent in 2010 but is set to stabilise this year, Gianluigi Sora, chairman of Istituto Nazionale Espresso Italiano (INEI) industry body told Reuters on Tuesday.

Forecast : Ecuador 11/12 coffee output to 'remain steady'

WASHINGTON, April 27, 2011 - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Ecuador:

"Coffee production for MY 2011/12 will remain steady at 650,000 60-Kg. bags. This is the result of increasingly higher yields resulting from the adoption of better agricultural practices by young new entrepreneurial farmers, offset by

overall decaying plantations that urgently need to be renovated. 

Since 2005, Ecuador has renovated or added almost 16,000 hectares dedicated to coffee but has switched production of at least 12,000 ha.

Ivorian cocoa mid-crop boosted by fine weather

ABIDJAN, April 27, 2011- Patchy rains and sun in Ivory Coast's cocoa growing regions last week was good news for the development of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers and analysts said on Tuesday.

Traders are eyeing the mid-crop in the world's top cocoa producer, with several exporters forecasting between 250,000 and 300,000 tonnes reaching port -- where warehouses are already brimming with tonnage delayed by a violent political struggle.

A top cocoa sector official told Reuters on Tuesday he expected exports to resume in the coming days, once a disute over customs payment arrangements is settled.

outlook : Q&A-What is the latest on Vietnam's 2011/2012 coffee production?

HANOI, April 27, 2011 - Farmers in Vietnam's Central Highlands have nearly finished their last phase of tree watering for the 2011/2012 harvest, while rains have started falling as the country transitions into the rainy season.

Following are some questions and answers on the current stage of coffee production in Vietnam, the world's second-largest grower after Brazil and the biggest exporter of robusta beans.

WHERE DOES VIETNAM'S COFFEE CROP STAND NOW?

Farmers will complete their last phase of tree watering soon as the rainy season returns to the coffee region slightly earlier than usual due to the impact of the La Nina weather phenomenon, a state forecaster has said. 

Coast cocoa snagged by customs dispute-exporters

ABIDJAN, April 26 , 2011 - The export of nearly half a million tonnes of Ivorian cocoa is being held up by demand from local customs authorities that duty be paid in cash rather than by cheque, exporters told an industry meeting on Tuesday.

However a top official of the CGFCC sector body said he was optimistic the dispute could be settled and that supplies of Ivorian cocoa could resume in a matter of days.

"We insisted but Customs demanded that it be paid in cash. In any case, I am hopeful that things will be sorted out today," CGFCC director of operations Eric Koffi told the meeting, in which several exporters said they could not resume supplies until the dispute was settled.

Koffi later told Reuters he believed the first exports could take place "in a matter of days". Exports have been blocked by a months-long political crisis which eased this month with the ousting of incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, who had refused to step down after a November election he was judged to have lost. 

SOURCE : REUTERS

NY COFFEE AND COCOA market close review for today, April 26, 2011

COFFEE
* July arabica coffee futures surged 5.50 cents or  1.9 percent to finish at $2.9630 per lb.
 

* Contract moved closer to last week's 34-year peak at  $3.0250 per lb.
 

* Total volume light at 12,287 lots, down 39 percent from  the 30-day average - preliminary Thomson Reuters data.

LONDON COFFEE AND COCOA market close review for today, April 26, 2011

Liffe coffee ends sharply up as ICE arabicas surge

* Liffe July robusta coffee rose $67 to close at  $2,502 a tonne after setting a contract high of $2,549. Market  bolstered by renewed strength in ICE arabicas, which surged back  up towards a recent 34-year peak.
 

* Liffe August white sugar fell $6.00 to close at  $633.10 a tonne. Market weighed by expectations of ample  produciton from Brazil and Thailand and the possibility of  further unrestricted exports from India.
 

* Liffe July cocoa ended 17 pounds higher at 1,907  pounds a tonne. Traders monitoring situation in top grower Ivory  Coast where the cocoa sector set to resume operations within  days following a violent post-election conflict.
 SOURCE : REUTERS

NY COCOA Forecast for today, April 26, 2011

New York cocoa remains technically neutral, move between $3,054 and $3,131 per tonne.
 

If market reach $3,131, price may extend to $3,200, an upper channel line resistance, while a break below $3,054 will trigger a fall to $3,018 first and $2,940 if the $3,018 level fails to hold up the fall.

 

The bias is still at the upside, as a short-term rising channel will be intact so long as cocoa stays above $3,018. ------

NY COFFEE ( ARABICA ) Forecast for today, April 26, 2011

New York coffee is expected to retrace more to $2.8890 per lb, based on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.
 

A five-wave cycle has completed on the rise from $2.6690 to $3.0250, and a Fibonacci retracement reveals an immediate target at $2.8890, the 38.2 percent level.
 

A rising channel will be violated, with a projected target pointing to the same as well.
 

Resistance is at $2.9820, a rise above which will confirm the resumption of the medium-term uptrend towards $3.05. ----

 

Forecast : Indonesia and Malaysia Cocoa

INDONESIA

SUMMARY- Scattered showers and thundershowers yesterday, 0.10-1.50+ inches(3-38+ mm). Temperatures 77-94F (25-34C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Additional showers and thundershowers expected, 0.10-1.50+ inches(3-38+ mm). Temperatures 78-94F (26-34C).

TONIGHT...Showers diminish overnight.

Vietnam Coffee-April loading rises, discounts widen

HANOI, April 26, 2011 - Vietnam's April coffee exports jumped an estimated 30.3 percent from the same month in 2010 to 155,000 tonnes, or 2.58 million bags, exceeding market expectations, the agriculture ministry said.

Rising exports from Vietnam could put a cap on London robusta futures prices, which have been gaining in recent months in line with the advance of arabica prices and an expected production shortfall in rival robusta producer Indonesia.

The estimated shipment this month brought coffee exports in the period between January and April to 11.25 million 60-kg bags, up 45.4 percent from the corresponding period a year ago, the ministry said in a report compiled on Monday.

NY Coffee and cocoa market close review for today, April 25, 2011

COFFEE
* July arabica coffee futures fell 3.75 cents or 1.3 percent to  close at $2.9080 per lb.
 

* July rose early on thin volumes, moving back towards last week's  34-year high at $3.0250 per lb, but reversed lower on investor selling as  the commodity complex fell - traders.
 

* Total volume at 9,492 lots, down 63 percent from Easter Monday 2010 -  preliminary Thomson Reuters data.

Forecast : Indonesia Vietnam and Thailand Coffee Weather today, April 25, 2011

INDONESIA

SUMMARY- Tropical showers and thundershowers the past few days, rainfallamounts 0.25-2.50+ inches (6-64+ mm). Temperatures 77-94F (25-34C).

FORECAST-

TODAY...Scattered showers and thundershowers likely, 0.10-1.25+ inches (3-32+mm). Temperatures 77-94F (25-34C).

TONIGHT...Showers diminish overnight.