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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Coffee and cocoa forecast for today & market closing review 23 feb 2011: ICE cocoa hits 32-year high, coffee slips


    * Extension of Ivorian export ban propelled cocoa to peak
    * Arabicas consolidate near highest level in over 30 years
    * Sugar futures fall to reconnect with physical demand
     ICE cocoa hit a fresh 32-year  high on Wednesday on renewed concerns over supplies after the  
Ivory Coast's export ban was extended, while arabica coffee fell  a day after peaking at its highest level in at least 30 years.
    Sugar futures fell below recent three-decade highs as the  market sought to reconnect with physical demand.
    ICE May cocoa futures <CCK1> <CCc2> traded up $50, or 1.4  percent, to reach $3,636 a tonne at 1653 GMT as the extension of  Ivory Coast's export ban increased uncertainty about future  world cocoa supplies.
    Liffe May cocoa <LCCK1> was up 19 pounds or 0.8 percent to  2,357 pounds ($3,817) per tonne, having earlier touched a  seven-month peak of 2,361 pounds per tonne.
    "Until now the trade have seemed reasonably relaxed, but  this (Ivory Coast ban) doesn't look like being solved easily and  uncertainty is what spooks markets," a UK-based analyst said. 
    "Now it looks like the ban has been extended, so the farmers  and the exporters must be getting distressed as well as those  who have bought the cocoa for manufacturing and processing," the
analyst said. 
    Gunfire and explosions shook an area of Abidjan that  supports Ivorian presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara on
Tuesday, and at least three soldiers died in clashes with  protesters calling on his rival to step down.
    Declared purchases by private cocoa buyers to Ghana's  industry regulator, Cocobod, reached 693,074 tonnes by Feb. 10,  up 40.42 percent by the same point in the previous season,  industry sources said on Tuesday. [ID:nLDE71L2GB]
    New York cocoa <CCc2> will extend gains substantially to  $3,746 per tonne, based on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci  projection analysis, according to Reuters analyst Wang Tao. ]
    
    COFFEE, SUGAR
    Arabica prices eased, after trading at the highest level in  at least 30 years on Tuesday, as a shortage of high quality  beans continued to support prices. 
    "Any end-users who haven't covered by now will be in  distress," the UK-based analyst said.      Arabica prices have more than doubled since June 2010,  underpinned by lower-than-expected output in high quality  arabica producer Colombia for three consecutive crops.
    "The focus still seems to be on the lack of tenderable  material for New York," the analyst said.
    ICE May arabica coffee <LRCK1> traded down 0.5 cent or 0.2  percent at $2.7385 per lb at 1700 GMT.
    Liffe May robusta coffee <LRCK1> traded up $2 at $2,384 per  tonne in moderate volume of 7,475 lots.
    Robusta coffee prices in Vietnam stayed near record highs on  Wednesday, with farmers continuing to hold on to remaining thin  stocks on hopes of further gains, traders said. [ID:nHAN125162]
    New York coffee <KCc2> will rise to $2.82 per lb as the  uptrend is intact, even following a retracement to $2.7035 on  the hourly chart, Reuters analyst Wang Tao said. [ID:nL3E7DN0NS]
    Sugar futures prices fell, trading at below 30-year highs  due to tight global supplies, as the market sought to reconnect  with physical demand.
    ICE March raw sugar futures <SBH1> were down 1.01 cent or  3.3 percent, at 29.95 cents a lb at 1701 GMT. London May white  sugar <LSUK1> was down $23.0 or 3.20 percent at $696.0 per tonne  in slim volume of 3,950 lots.
    "The sugar fundamental situation still seems to favour the  bulls, and we continue to see dips as buy opportunities," said  Thomas Kujawa of broker Sucden Financial.
    Indonesian state plantation PT Perkebunan Nusantara X failed  to secure white sugar for the third time in a tender, seeking to  buy 43,400 tonnes, said a tender official on Wednesday.
    While the firm said the tender was annulled when a supplier  failed to meet its requirements, traders said that buyers were  hoping for lower prices.
    "I think we are seeing demand deferral rather than demand  destruction at this stage, although that may change if prices  return to the highs and beyond," the UK-based analyst said.
Source:   ((sarah.mcfarlane@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging:  sarah.mcfarlane.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
 ($1=.6174 Pound)