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Monday, February 28, 2011

COFFEE AND COCOA FORECATS FOR TODAY AND MARKET CLOSING REVIEW, 25 feb 2011


* Rebels capture town in western Ivory Coast
    * Coffee market edges higher underpinned by tight supplies
    * Sugar market eyes Monday's expiry of March raws on ICE
Cocoa futures on ICE rose to close  at a 32-year high Friday as rebels seized a town in top grower Ivory Coast,  while raw sugar rebounded ahead of the March contract's expiry Monday.      Coffee prices rose after a two-day setback.      
The United Nations Secretary General said Ivory Coast was closer to the  brink of a new civil war after rebels controlling the north seized a town  in government territory and were heading south.
    "Of course the instability in the Ivory Coast is the main reason for  the push up," said Derrick Lewis, a senior trader with brokerage Cleartrade  Commodities in Chicago.
    May cocoa on ICE  rose $14 to finish at $3,639 per tonne, the  highest settlement since January 1979, after touching a session high at  $3,650. This widened the premium of May to $66 compared with July   from $65 on Thursday.
    The contract has risen about $600, or 28 percent, since early January  as the crisis in Ivory Coast has deepened. Volume, however, was thin at  about 8,500 lots, down about 60 percent from the 30-day average.
    "Until the situation is settled, there's concern about supply," Lewis said, referring to the reason for the premium.
    The sterling-based Liffe contract was also higher with May < closing up 18 pounds at 2,368 pounds a tonne, after hitting the highest for  the second position since July 2010 at 2,377 pounds.
    "Most of the people that we speak to are now leaving the country  because it's too dangerous," a European trader said, adding the country's  cocoa industry was at a standstill.
POSITI     DIFFICULT ON  
    "The (cocoa) trade is in a difficult position, on the one side  (presidential claimant Alassane) Ouattara wants them to continue to buy  from the farmers because they need the money, on the other Gbagbo says keep  exporting because he needs the money," plus there's EU sanctions in place,  the trader said.
    Raw sugar futures were higher with the market's focus on Monday's  expiry of the March contract.
    The nearby premium closed at 2.78 cents a lb, widening from 2.39 cents  at the close on Thursday, with the decision by Russia earlier this week to  cut import tariffs  seen increasing the appetite to take  delivery.
    May raw sugar futures  jumped 0.91 cent or 3 percent to finish at  28.74 cents per lb while May white sugar on Liffe rose $21.40 to  finish at $726.40 per tonne.
    Arabica coffee futures on ICE were higher as the market began to creep  back up towards Tuesday's peaks which were the highest levels seen in 34  years at $2.7840 per lb, basis May.
    The market suffered its weakest two-day performance in a month on  Wednesday and Thursday with the setback seen largely as a technical  correction after its prolonged advance and as investors got out of their  long positions.
    May arabica coffee  rose 3.15 cents to finish at $2.6780 per lb,  in an inside day.      A shortage of high quality arabica coffee from Colombia, suffering from  several consecutive smaller crops, has fueled the coffee rally and a  drawdown of stocks.
    "The funds are very heavily long so a bit of a wash out could be on the  cards but I am not sure we will see a calamitous collapse as stocks remain  so low," said a London-based broker.
    May robusta coffee  gained $10 to finish at $2,339 a tonne as  dealers noted a pick-up in exports from top robusta producer Vietnam.  
    Vietnam's February coffee exports rose around 16.9 percent from the  same month in 2010 to 90,000 tonnes, or 1.5 million bags, in line with  market expectations, and could offer some relief to tight markets. 
source: https://portal.hpd.global.reuters.com/site/applist.aspx