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Wednesday, March 9, 2011

COFFEE AND COCOA FORECAST FOR TODAY & MARKET CLOSE RIVIEW , 8 March 2011


Arabica coffee futures galloped up more than 2 percent on Tuesday, closing at the highest level in 34 years on noncommercial buying as some producers and exporters held back beans in hopes the market would climb further, dealers said.

 U.S. cocoa reversed to close lower after failing to make a 32-year high, espite escalating violence in top grower Ivory Coast. Raw sugar closed strong.

* The benchmark May raw sugar contract jumped 0.71  cent, or 2.4 percent, to close at 30.79 cents per lb.
 
* Market buoyed by investor short-covering - dealers.
 
* Nick Gentile, chief of trading at Atlantic Capital  Advisors, said sugar rebounded strongly after holding technical  support at 29.75 cents.
 
* "There's also not enough supply to satisfy consumer  demand," he said.
 
* Analysts said tight supply situation will persist until  start of cane harvest in top grower Brazil's main sugar growing  center-south region.

COFFEE
* May arabica coffee futures surged 6.05 cents, or 2.2 percent, to end at $2.8720 per lb, the highest settlement  in 34 years.
 
* Arabica futures will reach $3 per lb in the near future  as demand holds and supplies of the high-quality beans are  tight, while recent harvests and hesitant roasters are  temporarily limiting the ascent. ]
 
* Market rallied on noncommercial buying and as top grower  Brazil was out of the market for the Carnival celebration -  traders.
 
* "The idea that the U.S. economy might be getting better  makes people believe that higher quality coffee won't be  shunned." - James Cordier, analyst for brokers  optionsellers.com in Florida.
 
* Total open interest in options reached 166,614 lots on  March 4, marking the 16th straight day.
 
* Vietnam's coffee shipments this month are expected to  rise at least 22 percent from February, although trading slowed  to a trickle after a jump in London futures prices.
 
COCOA
* Benchmark May cocoa futures fell $29 to close at  $3,633 per tonne.
 
* May closed at a $58 premium to July , narrowing  slightly from $59 the previous session.
 
* A move by Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo to take the cocoa  sector into state hands triggered alarm as industry officials  feared a huge financial hit if it meant their stocks in country  would be seized. 
 
* Origin selling taking advantage of the current high  prices, which hovered below recent 32-year peaks, weighed on  the market - traders.
 
* A lack of buying momentum, as May failed to breach last  week's 32-year high at $3,775 per tonne, also caused the market  to dip - traders.
 
* Declared purchases by private cocoa buyers to Ghana  industry regulator Cocobod reached 706,626 tonnes since the  start of the main crop, up 39.6 percent from a year ago.