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Friday, March 4, 2011

SOFTS-Ivorian fighting powers cocoa to 32-year peak

* Gunbattles in Ivory Coast spur cocoa to new highs

* Sugar and coffee up, buoyed by bullish fundamentals (Recasts, updates prices; adds analyst comments,  U.S. cocoa futures bounded to a fresh 32-year top on Thursday as fighting spread in Ivory Coast, stoking fears of supply disruptions from the world's top producer of cocoa.

Coffee and sugar futures rose as well, propped up by bullish fundamentals, such as tight supplies.

New York's May cocoa contract rose $69 to settle at $3,733 per tonne, having posted a new 32-year intra-day peak at $3,760. Liffe's May cocoa contract jumped 50 pounds to finish at 2,396 pounds per tonne.

"It's (cocoa) up on fighting and chaos in Ivory Coast," said Sean McGillivray, vice president and head of asset allocation for Great Pacific Wealth Management in Grants Pass, Oregon.

Despite forecasts for a surplus of cocoa beans in the market, sentiment in both New York and London is being dominated by the bitter conflict in Ivory Coast.

Ivorian security forces shot dead at least six women who were protesting on Thursday in support of presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara, two witnesses and a security source said.

Both the spot London and New York March cocoa futures contracts traded at premiums over May, a direct reflection of the fears of supply disruption from cocoa caught up in Ivory Coast's turmoil.

"The premium in price is telling you there's a shortage ... tenderable stock levels have come off a bit. There's been a general drawdown of stocks," a London-based broker said.

Dealers said the combination of an export ban, sanctions against the country and a crippled banking system have virtually stopped the flow of cocoa out of Ivory Coast in recent weeks.

COFFEE AND SUGAR CHARGE HIGHER

Sugar and coffee futures climbed, with coffee bolstered by worries over the low level of stocks and a lingering shortage of high-quality beans from key producer Colombia.

New York's May arabica coffee futures rose 4.50 cents to trade at $2.7405 per lb. London's May robusta coffee was up $20 at $2,383 per tonne.

Sugar also clawed higher, with uncertainty over Indian export intentions and the steady level of demand underpinning the advance.

New York's May raw sugar contract went up 0.32 cent to trade at 30.70 cents per lb. London's May white sugar futures added 50 cents to trade at $761 per tonne.

"We continue to expect higher prices in the sugar market and are targeting 31.50 cents a lb, basis May New York, and firstly $785.00, then $800.00, basis May London," said Nick Penney of broker Sucden Financial.

"The recovery from the lows of the week before last is impressive and may signal a raising of buying ideas by end users," he added.

Dealers noted reports that some mills in the center-south of Brazil were starting to crush this week.

The typically wet summer period in Brazil's main cane areas could end some weeks earlier than usual this year, in April, a condition that should favor the start of the harvest, Somar forecasters said on Wednesday.

The Russian Sugar Producers Union expects the three-nation customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan to import 2.8 million tonnes of raws this year, the union's head, Andrey Bodin, said on Thursday. (Additional reporting by Marcy Nicholson in New York and David Brough in London; Editing by Walter Bagley)

http://www.futurespros.com/news/softs-news/softs-ivorian-fighting-powers-cocoa-to-32-year-peak-1000008514