BRASILIA, April 11, 2011 - Brazil is set to gather a good quality coffee during the world's biggest harvest, starting in mid-May, helped by improved rains and increased spending to boost yields, producers told Reuters on Monday.
The global coffee market cannot afford for much to go wrong with the harvest, which provides about one-third of the global supply. Low global stocks and rising consumption have led to a doubling of prices since June last year.
Brazil is set to harvest a crop estimated officially at between 41.9 and 44.7 million 60-kg bags. That would make it the largest-ever harvest for an "off year." Output falls every other harvest as part of the high-low biennial cycle.
Last year's 'on year' harvest turned out 48.1 million bags.
"This year, everything's going as hoped. The price is a good deal better. No one is really complaining about much," said Irineu Vitoriano, a technician at the CafePocos cooperative in Minas Gerais, a state that grows about one-half of Brazil's coffee.
Six cooperatives contacted by Reuters said the crop was developing well in good weather conditions without major problems of pests or disease. Increased rainfall also boosted trees' defenses against the Cercospora fungus that had taken hold in places after a bout of dry weather in February.
The month of March was much wetter than usual in some key growing areas, with nearly double the usual precipitation, though in other important zones it was close to the average.
"It's been raining well again since the end of February, so weather-wise, things are going well," said Mario Ferraz de Araujo, an agronomist at Cooxupe, Brazil's largest coffee cooperative based in the Minas Gerais coffee belt.
But heavy hail showers over the weekend that reportedly damaged houses and cars also fell in a few important coffee towns supplying Cooxupe. Araujo said the co-op did not yet know if coffee trees were badly damaged.
DRY WEATHER TO HARVEST
Cooperatives contacted in the states of Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo said the sharp rise in coffee prices have enabled growers to spend more on fertilizer and motivated growers to try to maximize yields.
"I think it's going to be a good year with quite good prices. The grains should be good quality since there has been more investment with the high price of coffee," said Kilder de Deus, a trader at the Sancafe brokerage in Varginha, an important Minas coffee town.
Eduardo Goncalves, a meteorologist at the Somar private weather forecaster in Sao Paulo, said models indicated dry conditions for the May-September harvest in the absence of either El Nino and La Nina anomalies.
"There will be less rain than usual. There is likely to be below average rain, though it won't be totally dry," he said.
Dry weather is critical to ensure that beans can be picked and dried without fermenting or being spoiled by dampness.
While arabica output is expected to dip by as much as 16 percent, or 6 million bags, this year, according to the official estimate released by the government agency Conab in January, robusta output could actually rise nearly 3 percent at best.
"Even being an off year, we should harvest the same or more than last year since rain has been well distributed and coffee prices are up. Farmers are taking better care of their fields," said Romario Ferrao, agronomist at the state agriculture secretariat.
Source: reuters
