LONDON, April 7, 2011 - Cocoa exports from Ivory Coast will take a couple of weeks to resume once incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo steps down and the security in the world's top producer stabilises, shippers say.
Fighting in Ivory Coast's capital Abidjan has intensified in recent days as forces loyal to presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara tried to unseat Gbagbo and the conflict appeared close to a conclusion on Thursday.
"It will take a few weeks, depending on staffing, logistics (for shipments to commence)," said Didier Willemse, head of commodity sales at Belgian shipping company Safmarine. EU sanctions against the country, an export ban imposed by Ouattara and a crippled banking system have brought the Ivorian cocoa industry to a virtual standstill in recent months. Dealers estimate around 500,000 tonnes of cocoa is stuck in Ivory Coast.
"We are waiting for the evolution of the situation. We need the green light from the European authorities," Willemse said.
"Everything will depend on the security situation ... if everything stabilises in terms of security for our operations, exports could recommence."
Sonny Dahl, director of West Africa services at Maersk Line, a unit of Danish shipping and oil group A.P Moller-Maersk , said the lead time to deploy ships could be anywhere from 1 to 7 days for exports.
"Maersk Line has a high number of weekly services serving the coast of West
Africa, so we always have vessels nearby the Ivory Coast ports. We therefore will be able to deploy vessels in to the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro immediately after the EU sanctions have been lifted," he said.
Ivory Coast has been in turmoil since its November presidential poll, which the international community recognised Ouattara as the winner of, as Gbagbo's refusal to give up power plunged the country into violence that has killed more than 1,500 people. A return to stability is key to exports resuming.
"The real challenge is not the legal framework for exports, but the physical and human infrastructure, particularly the latter," said J. Peter Pham, an African security adviser to European and U.S. governments and companies.
"It is one thing for Ouattara to be ensconced in the presidency; it is entirely another for him to get the Ivorian bureaucracy, whose members largely supported Gbagbo, back to work."
FURTHER VIOLENCE
Analysts said there were concerns that even with a political resolution, there was still a potential for further violence.
"The humanitarian situation in the Ivory Coast may be worse than was expected and there has to be security before the cocoa industry can resume activities but I find it comforting news that shippers feel it would be possible to be moving cocoa within weeks," Jonathan Parkman, joint head of agriculture at brokerage Marex Financial, said.
Hanna-Caroline Imig, risk consultant with security firm AKE Ltd noted that, "The main issue will be how easily the workers can get to work. At this point of time the security situation in Abidjan remains dangerous."
Still, cocoa dealers are confident Ouattara will make it a top priority to resume cocoa exports. "It's in everybody's interests to get the cocoa out as soon as possible," a European fund manager said.
Source : Reuters
