For almost three months the newly elected president of the Ivory Coast has been holed up in a hotel in the country's capital Abidjan, while the man he defeated in November's election clings desperately to power.
The stand-off between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara has been ratcheted up in recent weeks following the latter's decision to ban cocoa exports in an effort to put the squeeze on the finances of the deposed premier.
At present, Ouattara is waiting to take power at the Golf Hotel in Abidjan, protected by United Nations peacekeepers as violence - which has so far claimed close to 300 lives - continues to erupt across the country.
The ban itself is expected to have limited effect, with the bumper crop in Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana ensuring that stockpiles of the cocoa bean remain high in the short-term.
"We would have to start coming into the mid-crop in April, May before we may see supply constraints," Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group, said.
The situation, though, remains extremely unstable - and the longer the stand-off lasts then so the chance of a peaceful resolution to the dispute becomes ever more unlikely.
And for one of the world's largest confectionary companies that's a huge worry.
"It's about as volatile as it gets in the commodity business," Pascal Baltussen, VP Procurement Mars, tells Procurement Leaders. "I'm not sure how effective the ban will be but time will tell. If it stays in place for another six months then it's definitely going to have an effect."
Of course, bans of this sort are nothing new, particularly in Africa, and Javier Hijalva, CPO at Spanish cocoa buyer Natra SA, believes procurement organisations will find a way round the current embargo.
"Cocoa out of the Ivory Coast will reach the consumer one way or the other," he said. "The harvest in the whole of Africa is very good, not only in the Ivory Coast and Ghana."
Indeed it is. Despite the extreme weather and general volatility, cocoa production will exceed demand by 44,000 metric tonnes in the first of the year's cocoa seasons - a welcome relief after a shortfall of almost 50,000 tonnes the previous year.
For a company that has invested so heavily in its Ivory Coast supply base, however, it's still a deeply worrying period for Baltussen and his colleagues.
"We're monitoring the situation through companies that are on the ground for us and at the same time we're keeping a close eye on the situation through various channels we have in the country," he says.
"Obviously we have a very close relationship with our suppliers and they're informing us of every eventuality and things that could possibly happen in the next couple of weeks.
"In the broader sense we're doing everything possible to mitigate the threat to our business. We will do whatever is necessary to maintain the running of our factories - whether that's working with different suppliers or with different regions."
With the president-elect effectively stranded in a hotel and a deposed president determined to hang on to power, the situation in the country continues to look bleak.
Ouattara will hope that cocoa holds the answers, while Gbagbo is banking on that ploy not working.
Mars, meanwhile, has to sit and wait.
soyrce :http://www.procurementleaders.com/news/latestnews/0607-ivory-coast-stand-off/
